Essays on banking, credit and interest rates

Abstract: This dissertation consists of four papers, each with an application of a discrete dependent variable model, censored regression or duration model to a credit market phenomenon or monetary policy question. The first three essays deal with bank lending policy, while the last one studies interest rate policy by Central Banks.In the first essay, a bivariate probit model is estimated to contrast the factors that influence banks’ loan granting decision and individuals’ risk of default. This model is used as a tool to construct a Value at Risk measure of the credit risk involved in a portfolio of consumer loans and to investigate the efficiency of bank lending policy.The second essay takes the conclusions from the first paper as a starting point. It investigates if the fact that banks do not minimize default risk can be explained by the existence of return maximization policy. For this purpose, a Tobit model with sample selection effects and variable censoring limits is developed and estimated on the survival times of consumer loans.The third paper focuses on dormancy, instead of default risk or survival time, as the most important factor affecting risk and return in bank lending. By means of a duration model the factors determining the transition from an active status to dormancy are studied. The estimated model is used to predict the expected durations to dormancy and to analyze the expected profitability for a sample loan applicants.In the fourth paper, the discrete nature of Central Bank interest rate policy is studied. A grouped data model, that can take the long periods of time without changes in the repo rate by the Central Bank into account, is estimated on weekly Swedish data. The model is found to be reasonably good at predicting interest rate changes.