Modelling transport, accessibility and productivity in Öresund

Abstract: This licentiate thesis is about the provision of transportinfrastructure and the regional impacts of such provision.Three different techniques have been investigated that can beused for the assessment and forecasting of the effects ofinfrastructure: transport demand models and parametric andnon-parametric econometric estimation techniques. The maininterest is focused around the regional effects of theÖresund fixed link, which was opened on July 1, 2000.The thesis is a collection of three papers plus a generalintroduction: papers 1 and 2 are concerned with the effect ofaccessibility in the transport networks on productivity on anindividual firm level. In paper 1, a translog cost function,extended with an accessibility variable, is estimated for 24business aggregates using panel data techniques and tests on adataset covering single workplaces in Scania over the years1990–98. The results are not conclusive, and cannot beused for forecasting of the after-situation. In paper 2, anon-parametric method, propensity score matching, is applied onthe same dataset to test if productivity differs in highaccessibiliby areas compared to those with low accessibility,while controlling for other differences between firms. Theresult here is the same as in the first paper: for no businessthere is a significant difference in productivity that can berelated to accessibility. In paper 3, a framework for theexternal validation of models of transport, landuse andenvironment is developed, with a focus on transport forecastmodels. The scenario assumptions and forecast results ofearlier models are presented and compared. A before-and-afterdatabase under construction for the Öresund region is alsopresented, to be used for validation of such models.Key words:infrastructure assessment, validation,Öresund, transport demand models, regionalconsequences.