Babblers, Biogeography and Bayesian Reasoning

Abstract: In this thesis, I try to proceed one step further towards an understanding of the biogeographic processes forming the distribution patterns of organisms that we see today. Babblers and warblers are diverse groups of passerines that are phylogenetically intermixed with other groups in the superfamily Sylvioidea.First, the gross phylogeny of the babblers and associated groups was estimated. Five major lineages of a well-supported monophyletic babbler radiation were recovered, and we proposed a new classification at family and subfamily level. Further, the genus Pnoepyga was excluded from Timaliidae, and we proposed the new family Pnoepygidae fam. nov.Second, the systematic position was investigated for the Albertine Rift taxon Hemitesia neumanni, which was found to be nested within the almost entirely Asian family Cettidae, and possible biogeographical scenarios were discussed. We concluded that the most plausible explanation involved late Miocene vicariance in combination with local extinctions.Third, the historical biogeography of a Leiothrichinae subclade, the Turdoides babblers and allies, was inferred. We concluded that the Middle East region probably played an important role in the early history of this clade, followed by local extinctions in this region.Fourth, a Bayesian method to reconstruct the historical biogeography under an event-based model was proposed, where the total biogeographic histories are sampled from its posterior probability distribution using Markov chains.In conclusion, I believe that, especially with more sophisticated methods available, we will see an increasing number of studies inferring biogeographic histories that lead to distribution patterns built up by a combination of dispersals and vicariance, but where these distributions have been extensively reshaped, or litterally demolished, by local extinctions. Therefore, my answer to the frequently asked question dispersal or vicariance? is both, but not the least: extinctions.