Markov-chain modeling of energy users and electric vehicles Applications to distributed photovoltaics

Abstract: Technological improvements and falling prices on photovoltaic panels andelectric vehicles suggest that they might become more common in future households.The introduction of a photovoltaic system and an electric vehiclehas considerable impact on the energy balance of a household. This licentiate thesis investigates the power consumption- and productionpatterns associated with the photovoltaic (PV) electricity production,household electricity consumption and home charged plug-in electric vehicle(PEV) electricity consumption. This investigation is carried out on both an individual and aggregate household level. The methodology used in this thesis is interdisciplinary but the maincontributions are mathematical modeling and simulations of the three main components. Theoretical estimates of electricityconsumption were constructed from extensions to the Wid\'{e}n Markov-chain model for generating synthetichousehold electricity use patterns. The main research contribution in thisthesis is the development and analysis of two extensions of this Markov-chain model: (I) Electricity use from a home charged PEV,(II) Flexibility of end-user power use. These two extensions were used in studiesregarding the coincidence - in particular the level of self-consumption - between PV electricityproduction and household electricity use. PV electricity production was modeledfrom high resolution solar irradiance data from the Ångström laboratory.\\Results show that the home charged PEV load would increase the household loadconsiderably. It was also shown that the level of correlation between PEV load and PVelectricity production was low, but that to some extent the PEV load could help increasethe self-consumption of PV power, both on individual and aggregate household level.\\The modeling and simulations of end-user flexibility showed that the householdload profile could be altered to a certain degree. It was also shown thatcertain flexibility setup could improve the self-consumption of PV power production, more so than theintroduction of a PEV.