Production from Giant Gas Fields in Norway and Russia and Subsequent Implications for European Energy Security

Abstract: The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects total natural gas output in the EU to decrease from 216 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/year) in 2006 to 90 bcm/year in 2030. For the same period, EU demand for natural gas is forecast to increase rapidly. In 2006 demand for natural gas in the EU amounted to 532 bcm/year. By 2030, it is expected to reach 680 bcm/year. As a consequence, the widening gap between EU production and consumption requires a 90% increase of import volumes between 2006 and 2030. The main sources of imported gas for the EU are Russia and Norway. Between them they accounted for 62% of the EU’s gas imports in 2006. The objective of this thesis is to assess the potential future levels of gas supplies to the EU from its two main suppliers, Norway and Russia. Scenarios for future natural gas production potential for Norway and Russia have been modeled utilizing a bottom-up approach, building field-by-field, and individual modeling has been made for giant and semi- giant gas fields. In order to forecast the production profile for an individual giant natural gas field a Giant Gas Field Model (GGF-model) has been developed. The GGF-model has also been applied to production from an aggregate of fields, such as production from small fields and undiscovered resources.Energy security in the EU is heavily dependent on gas supplies from a relatively small number of giant gas fields. In Norway almost all production originates from 18 fields of which 9 can be considered as giant fields. In Russia 36 giant fields account for essentially all gas production. There is limited potential for increased gas exports from Norway to the EU, and all of the scenarios investigated show Norwegian gas production in decline by 2030. Norwegian pipeline gas exports to the EU may even be, by 2030, 20 bcm/year lower than today’s level. The maximum increase in exports of Russian gas supplies to the EU amount to only 45% by 2030. In real numbers this means a mere increase of about 70 bcm In addition, there are a number of potential downside factors for future Russian gas supplies to the European markets. Consequently, a 90% increase of import volumes to the EU by 2030 will be impossible to achieve. From a European energy security perspective the dependence of pipeline gas imports is not the only energy security problem to be in the limelight, the question of physical availability of overall gas supplies deserves serious attention as well. There is a lively discussion regarding the geopolitical implications of European dependence on imported gas from Russia. However, the results of this thesis suggest that when assessing the future gas demand of the EU it would be of equal importance to be concerned about diminishing availability of global gas supplies.