Risk and Vulnerability Analysis of Complex Systems: a basis for proactive emergency management

Abstract: The present thesis concerns methods and knowledge that are useful when analysing the risks and vulnerabilities of complex systems in a societal emergency management context. Operational definitions of vulnerability and emergency response capabilities are suggested and two methods for analysing the vulnerability of critical infrastructure networks, based on the suggested definition, are presented. An empirical study of people’s values and preferences regarding different attributes of potential disaster scenarios is also presented, since knowledge about values also is crucial for adequate risk and emergency management. It is concluded that the thesis provides important insight into some of the issues related to analysis of risks and vulnerabilities of complex systems, but that more research is needed to address this difficult and comprehensive task.