Environmental Assessment of Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell Systems. Consequences of an Evolutionary Perspective on Technology Development

Abstract: Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell Systems are in the early phase of the their development. Many assume that fuel cells and hydrogen always will be benign for the environment in any design and development phase. However, the magnitude of the different benefits could be influenced by strategic choices. And there is a possibility that some choices could lead to a worse environmental situation. This thesis aims to support the technology development process and the goals of the thesis can be summarised in two points: 1/ To discuss and propose some guidelines for scientists carrying out environmental assessment studies on emerging technologies by transfer lessons from theories of technical change; 2/ To summarise some general recommendations on how to improve the environmental performance of PEMFC technology. There are some lessons to be learned from the technical change literature. The technology development is a path dependent process, which among other things means that small events in the early phases could influence the final design and success of a technology. Especially in the beginning of a technology development it is difficult to predict its potential success, design, use and diffusion. Included in the thesis are three different micro-level environmental assessments: a bus line, a fuelling station, and a public transport system in a medium sized city, but also a discussion about useful demonstration projects. A major recommendation of this thesis is that environmental assessments of emerging technologies should not only include effects resulting from marginal change of the current system but also marginal contributions to radical system change and another conclusion is that assessments could not only attempt to predict the future, but inspire and guide the technology process.