Search for dissertations about: "Forecasting methods"

Showing result 1 - 5 of 70 swedish dissertations containing the words Forecasting methods.

  2. 1. Sampling uncertainties in ensemble weather forecasting

    Author : Linus Magnusson; Erland Källén; Jonas Nycander; Jan Barkmeijer; Stockholms universitet; []
    Keywords : NATURAL SCIENCES; NATURVETENSKAP; NATURVETENSKAP; NATURAL SCIENCES; Ensemble forecasting; Initial perturbation techniques; Meteorology; Meteorologi; meteorologi; Meteorology;

    Abstract : The aim of ensemble weather forecasting is to provide probability forecasts for the occurrence of meteorological events. The ensembles are constructed by assembling several forecast realisations, each member of the ensemble being constructed to sample the uncertainties in the forecast. READ MORE

  4. 2. From data to decision - learning by probabilistic risk analysis of biological invasions

    Author : Ullrika Sahlin; Biologiska institutionen; []
    Keywords : NATURVETENSKAP; NATURAL SCIENCES; NATURVETENSKAP; NATURAL SCIENCES; probabilistic models; establishment success; prediction; forecasting; uncertainty; risk; invasive species; Bayesian methods;

    Abstract : Predicting an uncertain future with uncertain knowledge is a challenge. The success of efforts to preserve biodiversity, to maintain biosecurity and to reduce a negative impact from climate change, depend on scientifically based predictions of future events. READ MORE

  5. 3. Spatio-temporal forecasting and optimization for integration of solar energy in urban energy systems

    Author : Dennis van der Meer; Joakim Widén; Pierre Pinson; Uppsala universitet; []
    Keywords : ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY; TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER; forecasting; photovoltaic; electricity use; net load; probabilistic; multivariate; optimization; Engineering Science with specialization in Civil Engineering and Built Environment; Teknisk fysik med inriktning mot byggteknik och byggd miljö;

    Abstract : The increasing penetration of non-dispatchable renewable energy sources such as photovoltaic (PV) systems in the electricity generating mix poses challenges to the operational performance of the power system. On the demand side, advanced schemes that increase the flexibility of customer loads and the increase in electrification are set to noticeably alter electricity demand. READ MORE

  6. 4. Forecasting of Icing Related Wind Energy Production Losses : Probabilistic and Machine Learning Approaches

    Author : Jennie Molinder; Anna Sjöblom; Heiner Körnich; Hans Bergström; Erik Nilsson; Sue Ellen Haupt; Uppsala universitet; []
    Keywords : NATURAL SCIENCES; NATURVETENSKAP; NATURVETENSKAP; NATURAL SCIENCES; Wind energy; Icing on wind turbines; Machine learning; Probabilistic forecasting; Meteorologi; Meteorology;

    Abstract : Icing on wind turbine blades causes significant production losses for wind energy in cold climate. Next-day forecasts of these production losses are crucial for the power balance in the electrical grid and for the trading process, but they are uncertain due to lack of understanding of, and simplifications, in the modelling chain. READ MORE

  7. 5. Enhancing aftermarket demand planning with product-in-use data

    Author : Joakim Andersson; Chalmers University of Technology; []
    Keywords : TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER; TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER; TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY; Big data; Digitalization; Product-in-use.; Forecasting; Demand planning; Aftermarket;

    Abstract : Enhancing aftermarket demand planning with product-in-use data ABSTRACT Aftermarket demand planning, consisting of forecast and known demand, is a critical activity for both the uptime of customers’ products and the supply chain-related costs. Traditional aftermarket forecasting methods use historical demand as the only input to the statistically based forecasts, usually combined with judgmental modifications. READ MORE