Reliability-based assessment procedures for existing concrete structures

Abstract: A feasibility study of reliability theory as a tool for the assessment of present safety and residual service life of damaged concrete structures has been performed in order to find a transparent methodology for the assessment procedure. It is concluded that the current guidelines are open to interpretation and that the variation in the results obtained regarding the structural safety is too great to be acceptable. Interpretations by the engineer are also included when deterministic methods are used, but probabilistic methods are more sensitive to the assumptions made and the differences in the results will therefore be greater. In a literature survey it is concluded that residual service life predictions should not be expected to be valid for more than 10 to 15 years, due to the large variability of the variables involved in the analysis. Based on these conclusions predictive models that are suitable for the inclusion of new data, and methods for the incorporation of new data are proposed. Information from the field of medical statistics and robotics suggests that linear regression models are well suited for this type of updated monitoring. Two test cases were studied, a concrete dam and a railway bridge. From the dam case, it was concluded that the safety philosophy in the deterministic dam specific assessment guidelines further development. Probabilistic descriptions of important variables, such as ice loads and friction coefficients, are needed if reliability theory is to be used for assessment purposes. During the study of the railway bridge it became clear that model uncertainties for different failure mechanisms used in concrete design are lacking. If Bayesian updating is to be used as a tool for incorporation of test data regarding concrete strength info the reliability analysis, a priori information must be established. A need for a probabilistic description of the hardening process of concrete was identified for the purpose of establishing a priori information. This description can also be used as qualitative assessment of the concrete. If there is a large discrepancy between the predicted value and the measured value, the concrete should be investigated regarding deterioration due to, for example internal frost or alkali silica reactions. Reliability theory is well suited for the assessment process since features of the reliability theory such as sensitivity analysis give good decision support for matters concerning both safety and service life predictions.