Data-driven predictive maintenance planning and scheduling

Abstract: The railway track network is one of the major modes of transportation and among a country’s most valuable infrastructure assets. Maintenance and renewal of railway infrastructure have a vital role in safety performance, the quality of the ride, train punctuality, and the life cycle cost of assets. Due to the large proportion of maintenance costs, increasing the efficiency of maintenance through optimised planning can result in high amounts of cost-saving. Moreover, from a safety perspective, late maintenance intervention can result in defective track and rollingstock components, which in severe cases, can cause severe accidents such as derailments.An effective maintenance management system is required to ensure the availability of the infrastructure system and meet the increasing capacity demand. The recent rapid technological revolution and increasing deployment of sensors and connected devices created new possibilities to increase the maintenance strategy effectiveness in the railway network. The purpose of this thesis is to expand the knowledge and methods for planning and scheduling of railway infrastructure maintenance. The research vision is to find quantitative approaches for integrated tactical planning and operational scheduling of predictive condition-based maintenance which can be put to practical use and improve the efficiency of the railway system.First, a thorough literature review study is performed to identify improvement policies for maintenance planning and scheduling in the literature and also to analyse the current approaches in optimising the maintenance planning and scheduling problem. Second, a novel data-driven multi-level decision-making framework to improve the efficiency of maintenance planning and scheduling is developed. The proposed framework aims to support the selection of track segments for maintenance by providing a practical degradation prediction model based on available condition measurement data. The framework considers the uncertainty of future predictions using the probability of surpassing a maintenance limit instead of using the predicted value. Moreover, an extensive total maintenance cost formulation is developed to include both direct and indirect preventive and corrective costs to observe the effect of using cost optimisation and grouping algorithms at the operational scheduling level.The performance of the proposed framework is evaluated through a case study based on data from a track section of the iron ore line between Boden and Luleå. The results indicate that the proposed approach can lead to cost savings in both optimal and grouping plans. This framework may be a useful decision support tool in the automated planning and scheduling of maintenance based on track geometry measurements.