Delays and Timetabling for Passenger Trains

Abstract: Travel by train has increased steadily in Sweden the last 30 years. The pace has been about two to three percent per year, and we now have twice as many passengers. With growing awareness of the changing climate, the pace is increasing further. A problem that affects both passengers and businesses in Sweden is train delays. One way to describe these is as the share of trains that arrive less than six minutes delayed. About 90% of trains in Sweden meet this standard and have done so for many years. In a way this is impressive, since there are now many more trains. Unfortunately, this also means that more and more passengers are affected by delays. This leads to irritation, threatens the shift of traffic to railways, and costs a lot for society. More trains must arrive on time. This thesis shows that delays are mostly caused by small disturbances – up to a minute or two. Over long journeys, these small disturbances accumulate and sometimes cause quite big delays. These delays mostly occur at stations, where the trains stop, but are then unable to continue on time. It is difficult to say exactly what causes these small disturbances, but the time that the trains are supposed to be at stations – the dwell times – are often too short. Another pattern is seen between delays and weather: if it is either warm or cold, delays increase rapidly. And while winter and snow return every year, they still cause major disruptions. The thesis holds a few suggestions to reduce delays. One is platform markings that show where the trains will stop, where the doors will be, and where the passengers should wait. This is an easy and affordable way to speed up the stops, so that the trains depart on time. Another measure is to remove switches. Then there are fewer parts that can fail, and those that remain can be maintained to a higher standard. A third way is to adapt the railway, so that it better withstands the weather variations of today, and the climate changes of tomorrow. Something that has been done in other countries is to shade and air-condition electronics and signals along the railway. Then the components to not overheat, and more trains run on time. Many things can also be done with timetables, so that more trains run on time, without a rise in costs. More of the planning can be automated. Then more time can be spent on giving trains appropriate dwell times. Infrastructure managers should also do more to evaluate and improve the rules and guidelines that govern timetabling. In this way we can improve timetables gradually from year to year, with fewer and fewer delays as a consequence. These suggestions do not solve all of the railway’s issues, but they would lead to many more trains arriving on time.