Identifying risk for recidivism among partner violent men reported to the Swedish police

Abstract: Intimate partner violence (IPV) against women is a global public health issue, where every third woman has experienced such violence. Moreover, IPV recidivism rates are generally high. These figures indicate that the police need a better understanding of the risk factors related to those perpetrators who pose the highest risk of recidivating in IPV. To this end, research has found that IPV perpetrators who are violent towards their partner as well as others (referred to as the antisocial subtype) display more risk factors for IPV than those perpetrators who are violent only against their partner (referred to as the family-only subtype). However, there are still uncertainties whether these two subtypes differ in terms of characteristics related to recidivism (i.e., risk profile) and actual recidivism. Thus, this thesis aimed to examine differences in risk profiles and recidivism rates between the antisocial perpetrators and the family-only perpetrators. This thesis was based on a systematic literature review and three empirical studies. The empirical studies were based on data collected from the Swedish police and consisted of IPV risk assessments. The risk assessments were performed by the police using the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER). These empirical studies relied on a sample of 657 male perpetrators who had been reported to the police and subjected to a violence risk assessment for allegedly perpetrating IPV against a female partner. The results demonstrated that categorizing partner violent men as either antisocial or family-only can help identify the perpetrators most at risk to recidivate in IPV. As such, the antisocial perpetrators displayed a greater diversity as well as degree of risk factors for IPV, and were more likely to recidivate in IPV, despite legal interventions from the police. In contrast, the family-only perpetrators presented with fewer risk factors, were characterized as socially well-adjusted outside of the relationship, and less likely to recidivate in IPV. However, several family-only perpetrators recidivated in IPV, meaning that such perpetrators should not routinely be dismissed as low-risk perpetrators. In conclusion, the results of this thesis can be used to improve the ability of those assigned to assess risk for future IPV to identify those perpetrators most at risk to recidivate. In turn, this could enable a more informed and adequate response aiming to prevent, or at best reduce, this risk.