Studies in empirical macroeconomics

Abstract: This thesis includes four self-contained essays:ESSAY I search for structural breaks in the financial sector share of seven major OECD countries and relate them to changes in GDP growth and savings. The event pattern of these macro series are classified and weighted by typicities. The findings suggest that the financial sector share in the largest OECD economies exhibits level shifts that are related to decreases in the savings ratio.ESSAY II investigates the extent to which local government consumption in Sweden is determined by permanent rather than current resources. Evidence from a panel of municipalities indicates that at least 90 percent of local government spendings on non-durable goods and services is related to permanent resources. This result contrasts sharply with the common view that local governments do not smooth consumption across years.ESSAY III uses a non-linear fuzzy logic procedure to empirically investigate the links between the real interest rate and aggregate investments in Sweden from 1950 through 1990. The economic environment is characterized by multivalued logic and an indicator for the economy-wide investment climate is derived strictly from the interest rate. It turns out that the fuzzy logic approach reveals empirical regularities that are not recognized by conventional linear regressions.ESSAY IV examines detailed Swedish manufacturing firm-level data on output and factor inputs from 1979 through 1994. Panel regressions show that an increase in aggregate output and inputs appears to raise firms' output beyond private marginal returns, a result. consistent with external economies. The essay also considers potential specification and data problems, and finds that the results cannot easily be explained by unmeasured variations in factor utilization rates. However, external economies arestatistically rejected in favor of productivity shocks. This finding provides support either for real business cycles or time-varying effects of external economies.