Supporting Management of the Risk of Wind Damage in South Swedish Forestry

Abstract: Private forest owners in southern Sweden consider wind damage to be one of the most problematic risks from an economic perspective. A potential climate change also raises the question of the possible impact of such a climate change on the risk of wind damage. Taking into consideration the spatial aspects, and the uncertain occurrence of windstorms over time and in space, this thesis aims at providing information to support the management of the risk of wind damage in south Swedish forestry. Computer models were used to assess the probability of wind damage to forest stands, and to project forest stands within case study landscapes in southern Sweden.Although the topography is relatively gently in southern Sweden, it significantly influences the probability of wind damage on a landscape scale. A possible cost-effective means to manage the risk of wind damage can be to target risk-reducing forestry measures to topographically induced wind exposed locations. To support the targeting of riskreducing forestry measures a tool was constructed, accounting for different risk-preferences among forest owners, for the identification of stands with a high probability of wind damage. The results emphasize the possibility to reduce the risk of wind damage by spatial forestry planning, taking wind shelter from topographic features and surrounding stands into consideration.Based on regional climate change scenarios, it cannot be ruled out that a climate change can lead to an increasing probability of wind damage in southern Sweden. In southernmost Sweden, a climate change very likely can lead to an increasing probability of wind damage. With implications for spatial forestry planning, the probability of strong wind from the sector west to southwest is indicated to remain comparatively high. Shortening the lengths of rotation periods appears to be one possible means for forestry in southern Sweden to adapt to climate change.