A Framework for Evaluation of Flood Management Strategies

Abstract: During the last decades, a great deal of attention has been focused on the financial risk management of natural disasters. The reason is that the economic losses from floods, windstorms, earthquakes and other disasters in both the developing and developed countries are escalating dramatically. Catastrophic events, in particular floods, have contributed substantially to financial and human costs of disaster, accounting for over half of the fatalities and a third of the damages from all natural catastrophes worldwide. It has become apparent that an integrated water resource management approach would be beneficial in order to take the best interests of society and the environment into consideration. One improvement consists of models capable of handling multiple criteria as well as multiple stakeholders. In this thesis, a system approach is applied for coping with complex environmental and social decisions with respect to flood catastrophe policy formation, wherein the emphasis is on computer-based modelling and simulation techniques combined with methods for evaluating strategies. As a consequence, the SEMPAI framework is developed. The framework consists of a simulation model, a decision analytical tool, and a set of suggested policy strategies for policy formulation. The framework is applied to two different case studies and stakeholder workshops and assessments using expert interviews have demonstrated its appropriateness and applicability.

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