Risk Analysis of Intentional Electromagnetic Interference on Critical Infrastructures

Abstract: Our modern society depends on the functioning and interplay of a wealth of infrastructures. Practicallyall of these infrastructures are in some form or another, dependent on electrical and electronicsystems. The majority of modern infrastructure is dependent on electric power and controlled bySupervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. Electronic systems are sensitive toelectromagnetic interference and at the same time, sources of electromagnetic interference are becomingmore readily available on the market.This means that certain important electronic infrastructure could be exposed to the risk of intentionalelectromagnetic interference (IEMI). Therefore, and also due to the complex nature of electronicinfrastructure, a comprehensive risk assessment methodology is needed. A game-theoretic approachfor quantitative risk assessment of the recently recognised threat of intentional electromagneticinterference on critical infrastructures is presented. The thesis bridges the gap between thefields of IEMI and risk analysis and lays a foundation for further development within this multidisciplinaryfield.In paper I, the probability distribution function of the electric field strength from a continuouswave source is estimated in complex building structures. Probability distribution functions arecombined for small and large scale fluctuations.In paper II, a structured risk assessment framework is presented for identifying and quantifyingthe risk of IEMI on a distribution network infrastructure. The dimensions and components of riskare dissected and a suitable definition of risk is formulated.In paper III, an operational model is formulated to optimise the operation of a wireless networkunder the course of a coordinated jamming attack. The model captures the time dimension andillustrates how the network operator must dynamically control the network so as to reduce the totalnetwork operational cost.