The implications of trade and offshoring for growth and wages

Abstract: In their pursuit of profits, adventure and new markets, humans have traded since prehistoric times. The relations between trade, profits and technological change, how- ever, were not the main concern of early economists ranging from Aristotle to the mercantilists. Presumably because in their world, the rate of technological change was decidedly low, and the basket and quality of goods available through production and trade did not change much over decades, or even centuries! In addition, it was not the technological change that brought markets closer, but “the ferocity of nomadic horsemen or the edge of a scimitar”, while “violently imposed monopolies and plunder”. (Findlay and O’Rourke, 2003) made trade more profitable.It was not until the industrial revolution that growth rates began to rise to high levels. Now that human inventions and discoveries came faster and cheaper than ever, trade liberalization was not only the way to gain access to new markets; trade liberalization had also a role in promoting growth. Trade liberalization in the form of lower trade costs, increases profits from exporting, and consequently, overall profits. That increases the incentives to innovate, produce something new and export it. Trade liberalization thus promotes technological change by increasing the incentives firms have to conduct R&D, implement the innovation or improvement and make larger profits. The field of economics that studies economic growth as the result of decisions made by profit-maximizing firms is called endogenous growth theory. There have been a number of theoretical advances in endogenous growth theory over the last 20 years, but there is no consensus on whether trade liberalization promotes growth or not. Some models predict that trade liberalization has a positive effect on growth. Other models predict no effect at all. In addition, not all countries have benefited equally from globalization.In this dissertation, I study the linkages between trade liberalization and economic growth (papers one and two). In papers two and three, I also explore the relationships between globalization, growth and the demand for labor. There is well documented evidence from a number of countries, that the demand for less-skilled labor has decreased in recent decades, and this decrease has resulted in a higher skilled-wage premium, that is, the degree in which the wages of skilled workers exceed less-skilled worker wages. This phenomenon has occurred in several countries, including the U.S. The skilled- wage premium has also increased in Europe, although less dramatically. In paper two, the relationships between trade liberalization, growth and wage inequality are analyzed using an endogenous growth model. The third and final paper is an empirical study on the relationships between the demand for labor and offshoring. More specifically, I examine what happens to the demand for different types of labor (not only skilled and unskilled labor) in the Swedish plants of Swedish multinational enterprises, when these multinationals expand abroad.