Numerical methods for the calibration problem in finance and mean field game equations

Abstract: This thesis contains five papers and an introduction. The first four of the included papers are related to financial mathematics and the fifth paper studies a case of mean field game equations. The introduction thus provides background in financial mathematics relevant to the first four papers, and an introduction to mean field game equations related to the fifth paper.In Paper I, we use theory from optimal control to calibrate the so called local volatility process given market data on options. Optimality conditions are in this case given by the solution to a Hamiltonian system of differential equations. Regularization is added by mollifying the Hamiltonian in this system and we solve the resulting equation using a trust region Newton method. We find that our resulting algorithm for the calibration problem is both accurate and robust.In Paper II, we solve the local volatility calibration problem using a technique that is related to - but also different from - the Hamiltonian framework in Paper I. We formulate the optimization problem by means of a Lagrangian multiplier and add a Tikhonov type regularization directly on the parameter we are trying to estimate. The resulting equations are solved with the same trust region Newton method as in Paper II, and again we obtain an accurate and robust algorithm for the calibration problem.Paper III formulates the problem of calibrating a local volatility process to option prices in a way that differs entirely from what is done in the first two papers. We exploit the linearity of the Dupire equation governing the prices to write the optimization problem as a quadratic programming problem. We illustrate by a numerical example that method can indeed be used to find a local volatility that gives good match between model prices and observed market prices on options.Paper IV deals with the hedging problem in finance. We investigate if so called quadratic hedging strategies formulated for a stochastic volatility model can generate smaller hedging errors than obtained when hedging with the standard Black-Scholes framework. We thus apply the quadratic hedging technique as well as the Black-Scholes hedging to observed option prices written on an equity index and calculate the empirical errors in the two cases. Our results indicate that smaller errors can be obtained with quadratic hedging in the models used than with hedging in the Black-Scholes framework.Paper V describes a model of an electricity market consisting of households that try to minimize their electricity cost by dynamic battery usage. We assume that the price process of electricity depends on the aggregated momentaneous electricity consumption. With this assumption, the cost minimization problem of each household is governed by a system of mean field game equations. We also provide an existence and uniqueness result for these mean field game equations. The equations are regularized and the approximate equations are solved numerically. We illustrate how the battery usage affects the electricity price.