Power Grid Resilience to High Impact Low Probability Events

Abstract: The electrification of societies and the decarbonisation of electricity production are changing energy systems worldwide. A fast transition towards the replacement of fossil fuels by intermittent renewable energy sources is expected in the next decades to combat climate change. A significant share of the produced electricity is likely to be generated from offshore wind farms, due to the abundant wind resources in the offshore regions and the lack of available onshore sites. However, increased electricity dependence in combination with expanded offshore wind power generation introduce new vulnerabilities to the society. Specifically, the effects of high impact low probability (HILP) events are considered as potential threats to the power system, not least because of the increasing number of extreme weather events. Therefore, research on power grid vulnerability and power system resilience to HILP events are of significant interest.This thesis presents results of studies investigating power grid vulnerability from a topological perspective, and resilience to storm conditions of power systems with varying dependencies on offshore wind. To achieve this, methods based on complex network theory and AC power flow analysis have been developed, tested, and evaluated. Further, geospatial wind data from historical extreme storm events have been used to generate realistic power production profiles from hypothetical offshore wind farms.The results strengthen that complex network concepts can be used successfully in the context of power grid vulnerability analysis. Further, the results show that the resilience of power systems with large dependencies on offshore wind differ vastly depending on the grid properties and control strategies, which are further discussed in this thesis.