A Risk Analysis Framework for Maritime Transport of Packaged Dangerous Goods - A Validating Demonstration (Volumes I and II) - click here to view both volumes in PDF

University dissertation from Department of Industrial Management and Logistics, Lund Institute of Technology

Abstract: Abstract - Vol. I

In this Volume of the thesis, which consists of two volumes, a risk analysis framework for application in the maritime transport system of packaged dangerous goods (PDG) is presented. In many countries, dangerous goods risks have been ranked high among public concerns. Such concerns are mainly due to the increasing volume of dangerous goods, human safety and health and environmental risks and threats they pose, and the general belief that these risks should be managed more efficiently and effectively. The literature study shows that, in recent years, the risk management system has become a "hot" topic for many countries and organisations. Many risk assessment frameworks have been developed in the shipping and other industries, sectors or areas. In the maritime industry, they are primarily developed for analysis of the risks for the industry in general and in particular for maritime transport of bulk dangerous cargoes such as oil, oil products, liquefied gases and other bulk liquid chemicals. The FSA (Formal Safety Assessment) framework of the International Maritime Organisation, which is one of the most widely used ("authoritative") frameworks in the shipping industry, is a generic framework. However, the framework is not intended for application in all circumstances, including the risks of the maritime transport of PDG. Consequently, the FSA is adapted or simply applied or tested in several maritime-related systems, activities and issues, but not in the maritime transport of PDG. Furthermore, a specific risk analysis framework for application in maritime transport of PDG has not been found. Therefore, on the basis of understanding gained from the extensive literature study of some of the world's best frameworks and techniques, guidelines and practices in shipping and other industries and sectors, and analysis of large amounts of empirical data, a risk analysis framework has been developed for readily application in the maritime transport system of PDG. Efforts have been made to strengthen validity and reliability of the framework. This study contributes to the communities of academics and practitioners. In Volume II of this thesis, the framework is demonstrated step-by-step in practice based on large amounts of empirical data. Recommendations for improving risk methodology and human safety and health and protection of the marine environment and property are provided.

Abstract - Vol. II

Volume II of the thesis presents the results of the validating demonstration of the risk analysis framework presented in Chapter 5, Volume I. For a number of interrelated reasons, including enhancing external validity, ensuring data and methodology triangulations, and filling gaps and extending the data, the risk analysis framework is step-by-step demonstrated in practice based on combination of the qualitative and quantitative empirical data and data analysis methods. The main datasets included: a) a representative marine accident case history; and b) the statistical incident data collected from the two largest U.S.'s hazmat (hazardous materials) incident databases. In this study, considerable efforts have been made to enhance understanding of dangerous goods risks. Given the size and uniqueness of the empirical data, this study might be one of the largest of its kind, and some of the results might not be found elsewhere. Based on understanding and the results of the risk analysis, detailed recommendations for improving human safety and health, and the protection of the marine environment and property are provided. The validating demonstration showed that the risk analysis framework satisfies both validity and reliability conditions. The results of the risk analysis replicated the framework. This study contributes to both communities - academics and practitioners alike. Given the representativeness, the large size and the diversity of the data, and the universal properties of the systems and risks studied, many results and recommendations are also valid for other systems and risks in other locations, countries or regions, including the countries of the Baltic Sea Region. Some results will assist relevant organisations or institutions to predict and explain phenomena. They may serve as the basis for further study and development of risk evaluation criteria in the field. The risk analysis framework contains many specific and detailed guidelines and firsthand experiences that will assist, but not guarantee, risk analysts to prepare and perform risk analyses and projects, including identification, selection and collection of relevant risk-related data and data analysis methods and techniques, and generation and presentation of detailed, valid, reliable as well as transparent results in a more efficient and effective manner.