Quantitative Understanding and Prediction of Lake Eutrophication

Abstract: Many lakes around the world have been exposed to increased nutrient input from anthropogenic sources such as sewage discharge and runoff from fertilised agricultural areas. This has led to eutrophication, manifested as intensified algal blooms, murky waters, oxygen depleted lake bottoms, and alterations of considerable parts of the foodweb. However, many of these lakes have also recovered, due to improved nutrient abatement techniques and to an improved quantitative scientific understanding of eutrophication and its causes. General, predictive models have played a crucial role in the latter development, as they have made it possible to quantitatively assess expected ecosystem changes from various planned actions against eutrophication.The present thesis has been aimed at improving the domain of validity and predictive power of a general, dynamic total phosphorus (TP) model (LakeMab) and to provide the basis for constructing a similar model for total nitrogen (TN). Among the findings in the thesis is that dissolved nitrogen gas is probably always available in excess for nitrogen fixation and nitrogen modelling in eutrophication contexts. Two papers have laid the ground for improved nutrient modelling in calcareous lakes, where sedimentation is particularly pronounced. Static models for predicting concentrations of particulate phosphorus, nitrogen, and organic carbon have been presented that may be incorporated into sedimentation algorithms in dynamic nutrient models. Boundary conditions for various flux algorithms have made it possible to greatly expand the domain of LakeMab for TP. The typical uncertainty of TP concentration values is 17% when predicted with LakeMab, whereas the uncertainty in predictions using older, static models is about twice as high.LakeMab may be very useful for resolving practical issues such as predicting climate-induced eutrophication and drawing up operational guidelines for achieving good water quality as prescribed by, e.g., the European Water Framework Directive.